9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems - PMAPS 2006, Stockholm (Sweden). 11-15 June 2006
Summary:
This paper describes a procedure for medium- and long-term risk analysis by using decision trees. A market equilibrium model is presented in order to assess the impact of the different sources of uncertainty. Decision trees are defined and applied in a study case, showing the advantages of these techniques for medium-term operation and planning. The paper analyzes different scenarios of five main risk factors: Hydro-inflows, fuel (coal and gas) costs, system demand, and CO2 emission price.
Keywords: Decision Trees, Electricity Markets, Gas Options, Market Equilibrium, Risk Factors, Risk Management
DOI: 
https://doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS.2006.360343
Published in: PMAPS 2006: Conference proceedings, pp: 1-7, ISBN: 978-91-7178-585-5
Publication date: 21-May-2007.
Citation:
N. Mosquera, J. Reneses, J. Barquín, E.F. Sánchez-Úbeda, "Risk analysis in electricity markets by using decision trees", presented at 9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems - PMAPS 2006, Stockholm, Sweden, 11-15 June 2006. In: PMAPS 2006: Conference proceedings, pp. 1-7, doi: 10.1109/PMAPS.2006.360343
IIT-06-035A
